This week’s “Long Reads Sunday” reading is from macro analyst Lyn Alden and focuses on the inflation vs. deflation debate in historical context.

The article looks at:

  • When monetary policy is effective versus when fiscal policy needs to take over 
  • How short-term debt cycles add up to long-term debt cycles that have very different remedies
  • Why long-term debt cycles inevitably end in default or devaluation 
  • Why the conclusion of the last long-term debt cycle in the U.S. – the 1930s and 1940s – suggests that devaluation is the most likely outcome
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